Date archive: December 2012

Foreign ownership in Japanese debt has increased 11% YoY, with  total debt held outside Japan rising to a record 9.1% (US$ 1tr) as at 30th September.  However, I would guess that the percentage ownership will be lower at the end of this year. It is broadly accepted that Japan’s disproportionate local holding of its debt…

Not surprisingly, the Australian Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has admitted that Australia is unlikely to generate a budget surplus this year, which is a u-turn on previous statements and promises made by the Gillard government. They had previously promised a budget surplus of over A$1.0bn this year.  Swan cited lower commodity prices, weaker than expected growth…

RBA Governor Mr. Stevens believes the non-mining sectors of the Australian economy may not adequately make up for the expected slowdown of the mining sector and that “monetary policy has limits” in respect to “fine-tuning” the imbalance in the short-term.  Mr. Stevens sees “further confirmation that the peak in resource-sector investment is near” and believes…

Minutes released by Australia’s central bank, the RBA, report that “softening labour market conditions”, combined with “confirmation that the peak in the resource sector investment was near” and that “the short-term outlook for non-resource investment remains subdued”, allowed the RBA to cut interest rates earlier this month to 3.0%, the lowest since October 2009 and, indeed, 1960. The…

The LDP (won 294 seats), lead by Mr Abe, together with their coalition partner, Komeito, won 325 seats (out of 480 seats) in the lower house, which would give the coalition the 2/3 rds needed to approve most legislation without the need for ratification by the Upper House, which they do not control. Voter turnout was 59.3%, the…

The RBA needs to cut interest rates further as current policy is limiting economic growth, suggests the OECD. They forecast that the Australian economy will grow by +3.0% next year, down from +3.7% this year.The A$ continues to defy gravity and is currently trading at US$1.0536, slightly off its high of the day. I continue to…

More calls for the Australian RBA to cut interest rates, this time from the CEO of Westpac, Gail Kelly, who cites low consumer and business confidence. However, the A$ continues to strengthen, currently A$1.0555 against the US$; A Chinese airplane flew over the disputed islands in the South China seas, with Japanese defence forces scrambling aircraft to…

Japanese machinery orders rose by +2.6% in October, the 1st increase in 3 months, though lower than the +3.0% forecast; India’s November trade deficit came in at US$19.3bn, slightly less than October’s record of US$20.1bn.Exports declined by -4.2%, though imports rose by +6.4%. Analysts expect the deficit to increase further, putting further pressure on the Rupee. There…

Australian NAB November business confidence declined to -9, from -1 in October, the lowest since May 2009. The business conditions index came in at -5, in line with October, the weakest since March 2009. The confidence index is currently 15 points below the long-run average of +6. The report reveals that retail, manufacturing and wholesale was weak,…