Date archive: January 2013

Ms Gillard, the Australian PM, has announced that the next general elections will be held on 14th September. The announcement of the elections, so early on is a huge surprise – PM’s normally announce such decisions about 1 month ahead. Ms Gillard’s Labour Party is trailing the opposition, the Liberal-National Party coalition, though the gap…

Australian December business confidence surged to +3, from -9 in November, the largest improvement since October 2001. The lowest interest rates since 1960, combined with improving equity markets, has helped sentiment. However, with capex declining due to reduced investment in the mining sector, capacity utilisation decreasing and orders and credit demand weak, I have to…

The Japanese Parliament reconvened today. Details of their proposed budget for the fiscal year starting 1st April have been released. Total expenditures are expected to be Yen 92.6 Tn, with new government bond sales to amount to Yen 42.9 Tn and with tax revenues of Yen 43.1 Tn. The numbers do not add up, suggesting that…

Japan remains in deflation. CPI (ex fresh food) declined by -0.2% Y/Y in December, in line with estimates. It was the 7 time in 8 months that CPI was negative. Ex food and energy, CPI came in at -0.6% Y/Y, worse than the -0.5% expected. The data leads me to ask how Japan will achieve…

Japanese exports declined by -5.8% in December Y/Y, the 7th consecutive monthly decline and much worse than the -4.2% decline expected, with the trade deficit coming in at Yen 641.5bn, the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Imports rose by +1.9%, mainly due to higher energy demands – LNG imports rose by +8.3% Y/Y. The 2012 trade deficit…

Australian inflation is heading lower, increasing the scope for the RBA to cut interest rates. The trimmed mean gauge of core prices rose by +0.6% in Q4 2012 Q/Q, lower than the +0.7% forecast. CPI rose by just +0.2% Q/Q, last Q, half the rise expected and just 2.2% for 2012, as opposed to +2.4%…

By a majority of 7 to 2, including the Governor Mr Shirakawa, the BoJ voted to raise the inflation target to 2.0% “at the earliest possible time”. However, the BoJ’s inflation forecast released today suggests that inflation will rise to +0.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2015, only slightly higher than the previous forecast…

Huge number of comments from Japanese politicians and officials today. I summarise. Mr Amari, the Economy Minister, acknowledged that the Finance Minister, Mr Aso was responsible for currency matters. Definitely got his tail tweaked following his recent remarks which temporarily strengthened the Yen. Mr Amari added that discussions between the BoJ and the government were…

Australian employment declined by -5.5k in December, much worse than the +17k rise in November and a +4k rise expected. The unemployment rate ticked up by +0.1% to 5.4%. The data is yet another indicator that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting; The Japanese deputy finance minister will attend the BoJ meeting…